How wrong was I?

Before the Ashes started, I made some outrageous predictions about how the series would pan out. Let's see how my divination skills have shaped up...

Michael Clarke will, on more than one occasion, save Australia from complete humiliation at the hands of the England bowlers (instead ensuring we only suffer slight humiliation).
This happened only once, when Clarke made his 187 at Old Trafford. Apart from that one innings, Clarke has not fired this series - one significant cause of Australia's batting woes. Is it the back problems?

Indeed, Michael Clarke will make at least two hundreds in the series. He may even make another double ton, if the old back holds out.
Well, this didn't happen. He almost made a double ton, yes, but it was his only hundred in the series. He passed 50 only twice. Despite this, Clarke averaged 47.63 for the series (accounting for his two not-outs), with 381 runs in total. He'd have averaged 27.71 if not for his 187.

Shane Watson, if he remains an opener for the duration of the series, will make a hundred. Maybe even two.
Shane Watson did make a hundred, although for the great majority of the series this looked like it might not happen at all. Remarkably, he actually averaged 41.8 for the series, making 418 runs in total; he would have averaged 26.89 if not for that 176, though. In any case, he made his 176 at no.3, not as an opener. Perhaps we've killed two birds with one stone: the no.3 dilemma and the Shane Watson dilemma.

Chris Rogers will be the second most solid Australian batsman in the series after Michael Clarke. He will certainly make a hundred.
Rogers averaged 40.78 for the series with 367 runs, although he made three scores above fifty - equal only to Steve Smith. I would actually say he was the most solid batsman, since Clarke and Watson, both of whom averaged higher than Rogers, only did so because of one great innings each.

Phil Hughes will manage to stand his ground - just - against the English pace bowlers, but will be tormented by Graham Swann.
Hughes averaged 27.67 for the series. He played four innings: 81*, 0, 1, 1. True, he showed some grit in his 81*, but I stand by my description of him as a "serial dud". The selectors seem to agree with me, since they dropped him after Lord's. And, indeed, two of his three dismissals were by Graeme Swann (both lbw).

Steve Smith will make a hundred. Or two. And will emerge from the series as the new darling of Australian cricket.
Steve Smith did indeed make a hundred. It was truly glorious to watch. But, in fairness, he did not perform as well over the series as I had originally predicted: one hundred, two fifties, at a reasonable average of 38.33. He hasn't emerged as a "darling" as such, but at least is now seen as a long-term Test batsman. The no.5 spot will be his for the foreseeable future.

David Warner, if he gets a bat, will struggle severely to hold his own against the England bowlers. This may be the beginning of the end for David Warner's Test career.
Warner played three Tests, making one score above 50 and averaging 23.00 for the series. Despite this, I very much doubt Warner is going to be dropped any time soon. His 193 on the African tour torpedoed him back into the Test side, and, unless his Test form plateaus from here, he will very likely remain in the side for a long time to come. Which is good, I think...

Jackson Bird will be the scourge of the England batsmen.
In one Test, Bird took a grand total of two wickets for 125 runs. Doesn't exactly set the world alight, that. It's strange, since his first-class figures are so freakishly good. Perhaps he had trouble adjusting to the English conditions? Or perhaps we are seeing a manifestation of the State teams' damaging and self-interested practice of preparing result-oriented pitches, and that Bird is little more than an ordinary bowler whose results are made to look extraordinary by the help of doctored pitches. Or perhaps he just had a poor match. That's my hunch. It happens. After all, that lbw dismissal of Alistair Cook was absolutely sublime. And remember his debut? I still rate him as one of the best bowlers in Australia.

So will Mitchell Starc.
Yeah, that didn't happen. Over three matches, he took 11 wickets for 357 runs (average 32.45). Not terrible, but nothing special. At The Oval all he seemed to do was leak runs, bowl wides and, yes, take the occasional wicket. Like a poor man's Mitchell Johnson.

James Faulkner will not get a bowl. Unless Ryan Harris breaks down.
Faulkner was quite a find in the The Oval. 6 wickets in the match for 98 runs - an average of 16.33. I quite underestimated him. He seems a handy bat, too. Let's see more of him.

Ryan Harris will break down.
Amazingly, Ryan Harris played four matches in a row ... before promptly breaking down. But at least he had the consideration to wait before the Ashes were finished before contracting a hamstring problem. Averaging 19.58 over four Ashes Tests (including two five-fors), Harris has shown what a class act he really is. Easily one of the best pace bowlers in the world now.

And the end scoreline? England win 3-1.
I was close, I suppose. England did win three matches. Australia had four chances to win one: one will go down as one of the great Ashes Tests in history; one will be remembered for what could have been, if not for the ruddy weather; one will be remembered for a bungled opportunity; and one will be remembered for a brave display of captaincy that unfortunately didn't pay off (#losetowin).

Now just wait for my next round of outlandish predictions for the home Ashes series in Australia.

An open letter to the Australian selectors

My dear selectors,

As I sit down to write this, it is one hour and forty-eight minutes until the beginning of the Fifth Test. I would have been marginally optimistic about our chances at The Oval, but now I'm not. This is why.

Earlier today my ever-diligent Twitter feed informed me that Usman Khawaja and Jackson Bird were to be swapped out of the side for James Faulkner and Mitchell Starc, respectively. I greeted this news with my trademark facepalm of incredulity and exhaustion. It's not that I don't rate the two players selected (in Starc's case re-re-selected); my problem is that, yet again, you feel the need to chop and change the side in a desperate bid to find the "winning combination" that will miraculously reverse Australia's decline and enable us to win Test matches again. As though the solution were that simple. As though it were even a solution at all.

I feel you have been frighted by the way this Ashes series has panned out so far. Admittedly, 3-0 does not look good, but 3-0 disguises the fact that this Ashes series has been a much more closely-fought contest than the scoreline suggests. Just as 1-0 disguised the fact that Trent Bridge could very easily have been Australia's, 3-0 disguises the fact that the tables could easily have been turned: the series could easily have been 3-0 to Australia but for a variety of turns of fortune. Had Haddin and Pattinson been able to push on to snag those last 15 runs at Trent Bridge; had the rain held off on the fifth day of Old Trafford; had Stuart Broad not inexplicably found the form of his life in Australia's second innings at Chester-le-Street: Australia could have been 3 matches up right now.

But it so happens that Australia is not. It so happens that Australia, instead, is 3-0 down on the day of the Fifth Test. Irregardless, Australia have performed better than the unflattering scoreline suggests. In the same way, England have performed worse than 3-0 suggests. Of England's main three batsmen - Cook, Trott and Pieterson - only Pieterson has performed anywhere near his best. With Root, Bairstow and Prior having proven to be lame ducks (other than Root's stellar, yet anomalous, 180), England has largely been dragged across the line by the heroic efforts of Ian Bell, their one success story this series. England have not yet posted an innings total above 400. Australia have. All of Old Trafford and most of Chester-le-Street were dominated by Australia. England have not dominated this series any more than Australia have.

That has not stopped you, the Australian selectors, from frantically cannibalising the Australian lineup after every loss. Rather than holding your nerve and being brave enough to play the same side, or largely the same side, for a whole series, you've descended into a frenzy of ritual slaughter. Ed Cowan, despite having been a regular in the Australian top order for well over a year now, was dropped after one match. His successor, Usman Khawaja, has now been dropped after only three matches. Jackson Bird was dropped after one match for, I suppose, not being as successful as his exceptional figures promised. Whether these changes were for better or for worse, I'm struggling to understand the reasoning. All I see is knee-jerk, reflexive responses to matches that haven't gone the way we wanted them to.

You see, chaps, it is one thing to always play the best performers. It is quite another to keep changing the side when our "best performers" aren't delivering the results we wanted them to. Every player goes through rough patches. You can't expect batsmen to consistently make 40+ runs every innings, or for bowlers to take 4+ wickets every innings (especially when Ryan Harris is taking them all). Moreover, you can't pluck players with little or no international experience from domestic cricket, expect them to immediately perform to form in Test cricket, and then drop them when they don't meet your lofty expectations. Nurturing quality Test cricketers takes time, commitment and, above all, patience. When a player is always aware that he is playing for his spot in the side, he will rarely perform to his best. Apprehension, nerves and doubt will enter his game, and he will play negatively and unnaturally.

So my plea to you is this: pick the XI, and a couple more, whom you want to be Australia's long-term Test players*. Stick with them. Invest in them. Commit to them. Let them develop. Let them know that their place in the side is settled. If they don't immediately perform, stick with them. If they go through rough patches, stick with them. If they don't make a hundred until their 26th Test or even pull their average above 30 until their 23rd Test, stick with them. The selectors of the '80s and '90s did for Steve Waugh, and just look how he turned out.

There is no quick-fix to take Australia back to ascendency. This is a rebuilding process that takes time and long-term investment. We may not see the fruits of our labour for years. But constantly changing the face of the Australian side at this dizzying rate is vain, damaging, and achieves nothing. Put in the hard yards to rebuild Australian cricket and you will be rewarded. I promise.

*An exception can be made for Chris Rogers.

And so it begins.

The Ashes have finally arrived. In two days begins the first Test of the 2013 Ashes at Trent Bridge. England versus Australia. History in the making.

A great Ashes tradition is the practice of English and Australian cricketers predicting gutting defeats for the other side before the beginning of a series. There was Glen McGrath's famous prediction of a 5-0 victory for Australia in the 2005 Ashes series, which he repeated before the 2010 Ashes. This time round Ian 'Beefy' Botham, the great England prodigy, has confidently predicted a 10-0 whitewash for England in these back-to-back Ashes series.

Now it's The Cricket Hooligan's turn to throw his hat into the ring. These are my predictions for the Australians in the upcoming Ashes series in England:

Michael Clarke will, on more than one occasion, save Australia from complete humiliation at the hands of the England bowlers (instead ensuring we only suffer slight humiliation).

Indeed, Michael Clarke will make at least two hundreds in the series. He may even make another double ton, if the old back holds out.

Shane Watson, if he remains an opener for the duration of the series, will make a hundred. Maybe even two.

Chris Rogers will be the second most solid Australian batsman in the series after Michael Clarke. He will certainly make a hundred.

Phil Hughes will manage to stand his ground - just - against the English pace bowlers, but will be tormented by Graham Swann.

Steve Smith will make a hundred. Or two. And will emerge from the series as the new darling of Australian cricket.

David Warner, if he gets a bat, will struggle severely to hold his own against the England bowlers. This may be the beginning of the end for David Warner's Test career.

Jackson Bird will be the scourge of the England batsmen.

So will Mitchell Starc.

James Faulkner will not get a bowl. Unless Ryan Harris breaks down.

Ryan Harris will break down.

And the end scoreline? England win 3-1.

I seem to have an uncanny knack for getting the calls right so far, so don't be surprised if I'm proven absolutely one hundred percent right. You can thank me for your winnings later.